The StatsMan

THE STATSMAN: Green light for Fownes import first-up at Valley?

The StatsMan breaks down the numbers on Caspar Fownes-trained import Green Aeon ahead of his Happy Valley debut

By Sohil Patel

Weighing up the chances of Private Purchase on debut is one of the toughest assessments in Hong Kong and Happy Valley throws in an added degree of difficulty.

Earlier this season we successfully found Californiadeepshot for followers, but what about Green Aeon?

Fownes – known as the “King of the Valley” for his success at the city circuit –  is looking to repeat the success he had enjoyed last season when he had sent out PPs Winning Delight and Perfect Glory to debut wins in Class Three.  Green Aeon will be ridden by Joao Moreira, who has previously ridden PPs Easy Go Easy Win, Calculation and Western Express to win on their debut.

Based on data since the start of the 2015-16 season.
Green Aeon won both his barrier trials impressively, one of which was at Happy Valley.  Our model evaluates his winning chances at between 27% and 50% based on those trials.
Flying Genius and Flying Bonus are the two main rivals he will have to contend with.  Though only one PP (Yee Cheong Bay) has won on debut on the Happy Valley 1,000 metre track from the 26 who have attempted this, we feel that Green Aeon can figure in the top two, but Flying Genius will be our top pick.
From his overseas form perspective, Green Aeon finished fifth (less than a length from the winner) when he last ran at Randwick in April over 1,400 metres.
He did overrace a bit while leading in this last run over 1400 at Randwick.  In that race, Green Aeon finished less than half a length behind Millard Reaction who now races in Hong Kong as General’s Delight.  General’s Delight finished fourth in the G3 Lion Rock Trophy on the last day of May this season.

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